Jeff Bezos left Wall Street in 1994 by asking what he would regret at 80 — not by predicting the internet. Minimax-regret does the same job for energy capital: it favours decisions that survive policy swings and price shocks over bets on one future.

When WTI went below zero in April 2020, most players froze and a few made a fortune. The difference was not a better forecast — it was working in ranges rather than single numbers, and knowing in advance which mitigations a range unlocks.