The Gulf’s backup pipelines did exactly what they were built for — route oil around the Strait of Hormuz. So why did the oil still get stranded in July 2026? A plain-English lesson in compounding risk, and what makes a backup actually worth having.

Exxon's CEO used that word in January 2026 — not because the barrels aren't there, but because the rules aren't durable. Chevron, in the same room, was ready to move. What splits two majors looking at identical geology is fiscal terms, not reserves.

Jeff Bezos left Wall Street in 1994 by asking what he would regret at 80 — not by predicting the internet. Minimax-regret does the same job for energy capital: it favours decisions that survive policy swings and price shocks over bets on one future.

When WTI went below zero in April 2020, most players froze and a few made a fortune. The difference was not a better forecast — it was working in ranges rather than single numbers, and knowing in advance which mitigations a range unlocks.